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Thread: FRS/LOS Trade Block (2063)

  1. #1
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Default FRS/LOS Trade Block (2063)

    Just getting rolling...PM away.

    RP Artie Rogers - Lefty, still kicking tail (I've got an offer, but am trying to read market value)

    SS Jaime Grindrod - Gold Glove. Hits a little. You know you want it ... 2nd round pick (or a 3&4)

    OF Amir Alexis - Can hit a little ... 5th round pick


    Fillers: Can play a little ($50K each?)

    3B Joey Cheney
    C Pat Hipke - Defensive backup
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  2. #2
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    My God! The offers are rolling in like flies on shit. Or something like that.

    What are you guys trying to tell me, eh?
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  3. #3
    FOBL Owner/GM CJP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RonCo View Post
    Just getting rolling...PM away.

    RP Artie Rogers - Lefty, still kicking tail (I've got an offer, but am trying to read market value) - Dude is old as fuck and broken down. Everybody has umpteen guys with those kinds of ratings kicking around their minors, so there's little point in trading for him. If you have an actual offer for him and its overall value for you is non-negative, I'd take it

    SS Jaime Grindrod - Gold Glove. Hits a little. You know you want it ... 2nd round pick (or a 3&4) - Dude is hopeless with the stick, with terrible ratings and potentials and a lifetime OPS of about .600. He might have some value because of the glove at a prime defensive position, but he's worth far less than you're asking. Your asking price is so miscalibrated that I imagine some owners who might otherwise be inclined to sniff around this guy won't bother because they don't want the hassle of a negotiation that starts from such a ridiculous point. Maybe a 5th rounder or a lotto ticket pospect. Maybe.

    OF Amir Alexis - Can hit a little ... 5th round pick - Draws no walks, runs like a batting cage with a flat tire, lousy in the field, and four years removed from his last non-awful season. Everyone has guys at least this "good" in the minors. Another guy not worth trading for.


    Fillers: Can play a little ($50K each?)

    3B Joey Cheney - Probably the only guy you have listed who is close to being worth a damn. Has very little value, but could hold down the fort for a bit on a contending team dealing with injuries. I don't see you actually being able to move this guy for anything, but crazier things have happened, I guess
    C Pat Hipke - Defensive backup - Absolute zero. Any team that could use this guy isn't in the business of trying to improve, anyway
    What the silence is telling you is that the days of fish gladly jumping in the pen with SubbyShark are over.
    "You know, some people say life is short and that you could get hit by a bus at any moment and that you have to live each day like it's your last. Bullshit. Life is long. You're probably not gonna get hit by a bus. And you're gonna have to live with the choices you make for the next fifty years."
    -Chris Rock



  4. #4
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    May Joey Cheney's Uncle Dick strike you down.
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  5. #5
    FOBL Owner/GM CJP's Avatar
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    Actually, this kind of highlights one of the biggest issues I think we've been facing for a while now. On my end, it's blunted my enthusiasm for and engagement with the league. There are too many players who are basically indistinguishable from one another or who look totally fungible with some other pile of (ratings and potential) numbers lurking on other rosters, in the free agent pool, in my minors, etc. It's certainly easy (for me) to fall into this way of looking at things. For FOBL 2.0, I'd like to either turn off ratings and potentials, or go to as coarse a representation of them as possible. Anything to force us (well, me, at least) to deal with the players in terms of their actual performance at each level and the in-game scouting reports. Maybe that's not ideal when it comes to evaluating the draft pool, but after that, I think I'd have a much more immersive and fun experience if I had less insight into what the FAC is working with and instead had to judge things based on the results the FAC spits out.

    Edit to add that I also wouldn't mind a bit of euthanasia to reduce the total number of players in the universe. Honestly, thirty or so prospects and depth pieces in a system with a bunch of Joe Ghostplayers sounds fine to me.
    "You know, some people say life is short and that you could get hit by a bus at any moment and that you have to live each day like it's your last. Bullshit. Life is long. You're probably not gonna get hit by a bus. And you're gonna have to live with the choices you make for the next fifty years."
    -Chris Rock



  6. #6
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    I love stats-only leagues. I played in one very early in my days, and if I ever do solo leagues (which is not often anymore), they are all stats-only. For me, that’s like 100% more fun. Great players emerge eventually, and others look fantastic until they hit whatever level they can’t adjust. Sometimes I play my “regular” teams more as stats-only leagues just because the baseballness of the process is magnitudes of life better.

    That’s really what I’m here for. I like running large baseball organizations. I think I’m in a bit of a minority here, but I spend considerably more time managing my rookie and single A teams than I do anything else. I find that doing that strengthens the big club eventually, and I get as much fun out of the kids as anything else.

    However, the stats-only process, to me, really requires the opposite of what you’re asking for—meaning you _want_ a lot of dross. The act of managing the minors is all about paying attention to fringy stats. You want 20 rounds of draft, you want to be releasing 10-20 guys a year as they crap out…

    Anyway.

    I don’t figure I get a real vote in what’s going to happen next.

    But having FOBL go balls-out all stats would be an interesting twist. J
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  7. #7
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    It actually struck me last night as I was looking at players and ratings, that in some weird way, FOBL is already playing a bit of a Stats-only league. The ratings look like they are so off-the scale, that ultimately you just use blue bars to decide if a guy can play in the majors or not, and from that point on you need stats to figure out if he's any good.

    I know that's going too far, but there's a grain of truth in there someplace that maybe speaks to your point, too. Dunno.
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  8. #8
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    I mean, you've got guys who are "blue bar" players and pretty good by the eye, then you see they carry 1-star overall ratings and hit .235.
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  9. #9
    FOBL Owner/GM pbot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJP View Post
    Actually, this kind of highlights one of the biggest issues I think we've been facing for a while now. On my end, it's blunted my enthusiasm for and engagement with the league. There are too many players who are basically indistinguishable from one another or who look totally fungible with some other pile of (ratings and potential) numbers lurking on other rosters, in the free agent pool, in my minors, etc.
    Interesting point, I think I'm in the same place. Sunday night I was going to post a trade block looking for a decent glove at 2b. I looked through my minors and found a guy with decent enough fielding rating and just promoted him instead. Strange what can happen once you start paying attention to your team, eh? Didn't want to give up any draft picks, and don't really have anyone of value to swap, so I took the easy way out for now.

    Stats only? Hmmm, would be interesting to discuss further. I do agree with making the ratings as less precise as possible.

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  10. #10
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    I just pulled a stat list for the league, complete with base ratings.

    Average, run of the mill plate appearance in the FOBL:

    Batter:
    Contact = 7.02
    Gap = 7.36
    Power = 6.04
    Eye = 5.71
    AvK = 6.66

    Pitcher:
    Stuff =7.74
    Movement = 7.02
    Control = 7.32
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  11. #11
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbot View Post
    Stats only? Hmmm, would be interesting to discuss further. I do agree with making the ratings as less precise as possible.
    I don't think many people want to pay attention to the game that closely, really. Especially not FOBL, (he says bruskly).

    I'm not sure it's really about making the ratings "less precise," either...though I'm really just starting on my quest to get familiar with the league in depth...so what do I know?
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  12. #12
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Here's an interesting chart. It's a count of every pitcher who has faced a batter in FOBL through the last sim...

    Rating
    STU
    MOV CON
    1 5 5
    2 1
    3 4
    4 8 5 22
    5 21 11 34
    6 59 33 72
    7 102 68 95
    8 81 156 74
    9 55 88 59
    10 26 24 19
    11 18 3 3
    12 8
    13 5
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  13. #13
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Same thing for hitters:

    Rating
    Con Gap Pow Eye
    AvK
    1 19 1
    2 1 30 6
    3 1 45 30 10
    4 10 13 54 73 28
    5 79 51 55 124 87
    6 122 83 60 116 111
    7 117 123 84 67 96
    8 93 132 66 35 64
    9 34 50 41 15 37
    10 9 13 16 4 28
    11 6 2 1 10
    12 1 2
    13
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  14. #14
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Love the 5 pitchers with 1 Stuff. Those are position players who appear to have pitched in blow outs. Four with QNS.
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  15. #15
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    So, yea, the ratings are a little skewed.

    At question, though, is how do these ratings perform. Let’s look at batter power. Here are the number of plate appearances and home runs hit created by FOBL batters of each Power Rating…I then calculated a HR/PA rate, and transposed that to expected HR/550 plate appearances.


    Rating
    PA
    HR
    HR/PA
    550 PA
    1 2205 5 0.0023 1.25
    2 2490 19 0.0076 4.20
    3 3855 38 0.0099 5.42
    4 4426 76 0.0172 9.44
    5 6305 107 0.0170 9.33
    6 6712 183 0.0273 15.00
    7 9864 346 0.0351 19.29
    8 8956 345 0.0385 21.19
    9 6079 294 0.0484 26.60
    10 2558 161 0.0629 34.62
    11 188 12 0.0638 35.11
    Total 53638 1586 0.0296 16.26



    Look here…there is effectively no difference between a “4” and a “5” power rating in this data (and in fact “4” ratings are performing better by random chance). Also not that the performance difference between a “7” and a “8” Power Rating is about 2 homers per 550 AB…in the noise. And the difference between a “6” and an “8” is only six homers.


    I think this is the “problem” with how the game feels…

    The root cause of this is complex and dependent upon how you view the fun of the game, I suppose. But to _me_ can be mostly be described as pitchers across the league having too much movement…which is born out in the Pitcher chart above.

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  16. #16
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Regardless, it looks like a pitcher needs to be 7/8/7 or above or he's never going to be any good.
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  17. #17
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Perhaps this is too much for a trade block, eh?
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  18. #18
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Interestingly, strikeouts vs. AvK look much more reasonable. I say “interestingly” because the AvK rating is a little more focused around 6 (5.71) than the Power Rating, but even moreso that the Pitcher’s Stuff Rating is skewed more to the left than the pitcher Movement rating, which is clumped up high…in other words, your pitcher can be a “7” stuff and at least work out, but you better have an “8” movement or you’re dogmeat.

    Here’s the batter’s AvK performance in FOBL’s first two months…



    AvK
    PA SO SO/PA 550 PA
    3 474 140 0.2954 162.45
    4 2418 638 0.2639 145.12
    5 8581 1950 0.2272 124.99
    6 13251 2444 0.1844 101.44
    7 11930 1854 0.1554 85.47
    8 7551 983 0.1302 71.60
    9 4562 438 0.0960 52.81
    10 3569 243 0.0681 37.45
    11 1302 65 0.0499 27.46
    Total 53638 8755 0.1632 89.77
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  19. #19
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Last post on this, I think...here are all the pitcher performances. You can see STUFF and CONTROL are differentiating okay even despite being high on the curve. MOVEMENT is a mess, though. (Note, I selected 700 BF as 35 games of 20 BF)...

    With Movement there is only a 3.8 homer difference between an "8" and a "10." So, basically, all 8/9/10 movement guys are almost identical in their performances, with "9" and "10 only about a homer apart. You start to see some separation from "7" down, but by that time pretty much all of them are borderline bad, so who really cares.

    Here are the charts, movement first...

    MOV
    BF HR HR/BF 700 BF
    3 81 3 0.037 25.93
    4 1149 54 0.047 32.90
    5 4593 188 0.041 28.65
    6 8259 300 0.036 25.43
    7 22488 683 0.030 21.26
    8 12434 273 0.022 15.37
    9 4215 78 0.019 12.95
    10 423 7 0.017 11.58
    Total 53642 1586 0.030 20.70


    STU
    BF K K/BF 700 BF
    1 38 5 0.132 92.11
    4 792 65 0.082 57.45
    5 2431 217 0.089 62.48
    6 8774 1059 0.121 84.49
    7 15164 2282 0.150 105.34
    8 10988 1760 0.160 112.12
    9 7733 1505 0.195 136.23
    10 3576 762 0.213 149.16
    11 2660 670 0.252 176.32
    12 914 261 0.286 199.89
    13 572 169 0.295 206.82
    Tot 53642 8755 0.163 114.25


    CON
    BF BB BB/BF 700 BF
    1 38 10 0.263 184.21
    2 30 9 0.300 210.00
    3 272 47 0.173 120.96
    4 2299 318 0.138 96.82
    5 4271 486 0.114 79.65
    6 9144 925 0.101 70.81
    7 13046 1079 0.083 57.90
    8 10711 732 0.068 47.84
    9 9703 503 0.052 36.29
    10 3403 130 0.038 26.74
    11 725 19 0.026 18.34
    Total 53642 4258 0.079 55.56
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  20. #20
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Interesting...there's also a flat spot for hitter's walks between "7" and "8" Only a 5 BB/550PA difference. Wonder if that will work itself out over time.
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  21. #21
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    Had a page for ratings, too.

    http://www.thefobl.com/utilities/metrics.php

    Base 200, of course (and I did just update the db tables). Not sure why we have 50yo showing up in the universe for hitters. Those numbers actually changed from when I loaded the page before and after loading the csv. Guys not labeled as retired maybe?


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  22. #22
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Here's another interesting chart...Batter's CON ratings vs. their averages...the numbers themselves do differentiate, but a "7" CON hits .254. An "8" only .278. So, technically the rating scale is differentiating ok, the psychology of looking a player with a "7" contact and knowing they are probably not very good is probably more than annoying.

    Con
    PA
    AB H AVG
    4 176 152 20 0.132
    5 5375 4758 982 0.206
    6 12658 11299 2640 0.234
    7 13820 12423 3155 0.254
    8 12938 11617 3232 0.278
    9 5791 5112 1504 0.294
    10 1481 1318 436 0.331
    11 1197 1058 324 0.306
    12 202 184 69 0.375
    GTotal 53638 47921 12362 0.258
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  23. #23
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cuervo72 View Post
    Had a page for ratings, too.

    http://www.thefobl.com/utilities/metrics.php

    Base 200, of course (and I did just update the db tables). Not sure why we have 50yo showing up in the universe for hitters. Those numbers actually changed from when I loaded the page before and after loading the csv. Guys not labeled as retired maybe?
    Interesting. What are the two columns for each rating?
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  24. #24
    Beloved Former Owner RonCo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RonCo View Post
    Interesting. What are the two columns for each rating?
    Current and potential, I assume now.
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  25. #25
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    Correct.


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