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Thread: 2047 Mock Draft

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Default 2047 Mock Draft

    1. Hollywood Media Whores - SP Pat O'Donnell (Actual Pick: SP Pat O'Donnell)

    One of the most obvious picks in the history of the FOBL draft. HOL is desperate for a #1 SP, having expended the vast majority of their prior years' picks on hitters (now deceased). O'Donnell is 22, durable, extraordinarily loyal, smart, and a hard worker. He's no Happy Rivera, but he's good enough, and assuming he survives (HAHAHAHAHAHA), he'll be on the hill Opening Day 2048 for HOL as they exit the tank.



    2. Minnesota Windchill - SP Ian Kerns (Actual Pick: OF T.J. "Bomb" Crater)

    MIN is sitting at the 2nd overall pick wishing they had undertaken a classic TauterTank circa fake 2017. They have a complete organizational vacuum at SP, but the obvious remaining SP prospects all have flaws. SP Ian Kerns is 18 and has borderline 3rd and 4th pitches. SP Brendan Corrick is also 18 and has the stamina of an asthmatic hamster. SP Ed Schwartz is 20 (and very close to 21), but has my work ethic and is obviously inferior to Kerns. This is a tough call, but Tauter will roll the dice with the teenager and hope his talents win out.



    3. Des Moines Delinquents - OF T.J. "Bomb" Crater (Actual Pick: SS Dave Long)

    DES has enough SP prospects that they can bypass Corrick and Schwartz without too much agita. The 3rd-best minor league system is noticeably lacking in power, making OF T.J. "Bomb" Crater both the obvious pick and the most appropriate nickname in the draft (after I edit it from "Bomber").



    4. Portland Fighting Prawns - 1B Alistair Megson (Actual Pick: 1B Alistair Megson)

    POR is in enviable shape. They have the 5th best minor league system and four 1st rounders in this draft. Their system has 2 solid SP prospects (although SP Lohman is dying, perhaps from atrophy) and a trove of above-average position players. They have the raw numbers, but are missing that super-stud prospect to anchor their organization. Having three more picks after this could prompt PT to go high-risk/high-reward with this pick and take a SP Ian Kerns or SP Brendan Corrick if still available, but I believe PT has seen too much damage wrought by the dev woodchipper and will go with the surest thing available. Megson is 22 and should be ready to mash from the DH spot next season. But... the obvious move would be to use their pick assets to trade up to the #2 spot and take OF Crater.... hmmmm.


    5. Richmond Confederates - SS Dave Long (Actual Pick: 3B Ian Russo)

    RIC has built the 6th-best system in FOBL on the backs of Shawn Ramsey and several interesting MOV-dominant SP prospects. No way they go SP here, with such a glaring need up the middle. Cubs is almost ready to compete for 4th place in the ICS, and visions of Stefan Miller v2 dance through his head at night (along with tentacle pr0n). SS Long is about as ready as any other draftee and is a 5-tool guy.


    6. Milwaukee Microbrewers - 3B Savion Tucker (Actual Pick: SP Ian Kerns)

    MIL is in a tough spot. They've been treading water for three seasons without a whole lot to show for it, save Jud York and arguably Jed Powell. All their top position prospects are ready for the bigs, but aren't enough to make them a realistic threat to win it all. How they proceed with this pick should tell us a lot (or that Bing is just sick of the whole process). Do they grab a ML-ready talent who could contribute mid-season, make a splash in FA with their $12M+ bankroll, and go for it? Or do they take a teenager with a high ceiling, try to trade some of their ML-ready prospects, and start the tank process anew? I think Bing goes for the middle ground with the safest remaining hitting talent who could be ready next season, builds his BC and bankroll one more season, and goes for it in 2048. 1B/DH Megson is the pick if he's still there; barring that, Tucker offers a nice blend of CON, POW, defense and intangibles.


    7. Montana Monarchs - SS Vic Payne (Actual Pick: SP Tristan Poole)

    If MIN has a "complete organizational vacuum at SP," MON's vacuum at SP is like the furthest reaches of space. Even so, they are not a lock to take a SP here. MON is coming off several years of playoff competition, save for an occasional stumble; therefore, they are truly in BPA mode. If they want a safe(r), solid pick at a position of need, they will go with SP Poole. When the pick is on the clock, however, I think the massive talent of SS Payne will be too much to pass up here, even considering his age. Were these the halcyon trading days of old, I would look for MON to trade this pick to a team desperate for a SP after they see Poole and others drop.


    8. Kentucky Juggernaut - RP R.J. Marks (Actual Pick: 3B Savion Tucker) (traded to POU)

    Welcome back, Duke! The owner of the #1 minor league system in FOBL will be incensed if SS Payne is off the board at 1-7 because if any team is in a position to take a flyer on a 17-year-old potential HOF player, it's KEN. Assuming Payne is gone, KEN will turn its attention to the absolute BPA, and youth is not a detriment, because KEN's system is topheavy at AAA. That said (sorry, Buddy), don't be surprised if they cross everybody up and take SooperCloser R.J. Marks to start the season in the bigs along with the rest of their youngsters. This could even be Duke's first foray into a 2-pitch SP. Now I've convinced myself. Marks is the pick here.


    9. Alaska Albatross - SP Tristan Poole (Actual Pick: 3B J.D. Edwards)

    New boss, same as the old boss. Argot is back and he wants Happy Rivera version 2. He won't get it at 1-9, but I see him taking the best available SP to join the rest of his young prospects in the lower minors. If Poole is gone, don't be surprised to see Argot go for RP Marks if he's still there and try him as a 2-pitch SP.


    10. Trenton Roadkill - MR/SP Jimmy Williams (Actual Pick: MR/SP Jimmy Williams)

    TRE is loaded with position players at the lower levels, so I see them taking the best left between SP Poole, RP Marks, and MR/SP Jimmy Williams. My accuracy so far notwithstanding, I don't see any way those three players all make it out of the top 10. The 21-year-old Williams is listed as a MR, but has 4 pitches (3 of them excellent), good stamina and solid injury ratings. He'll make a nice #2-#3 SP.


    11. Triangle Vajdas - 3B Ian Russo (Actual Pick: SP Brendan Corrick)

    I think TRI is going to make a move this season. They have money to spend and two really nice SP prospects ready to go this season, so I don't see them reaching for a SP here. If RP Marks is somehow still here, I think Vaj is tempted to take him. Ultimately, though, Vaj takes the long view and looks to add some power to their lower levels. Russo isn't the BPA here, but he's older, has a high WE, and fits an organizational need at 3B.


    12. Brewerytown Brawlers - CF Jarrod Smith (Actual Pick: 2B Jimmy Cumbest)

    BRE has announced his intent to go full tank, so this looks to be a BPA pick. Luckily for CJP, several teams above him have passed on young talent in favor of older players and/or prospects who fit an immediate need. But he has a tough decision, because there are a couple of intriguing SP prospects left. Ultimately, I believe CJP eschews taking a SP this draft in hopes that he can get a stud at #1 next draft. This allows Smith to fall into CJP's clutches and immediately become BRE's #1 OF prospect.


    13. Columbus Crows - SP Lewis MacDougall (Actual Pick: SP Ed Schwartz)

    COL is flush with cash and should look to FA to finish their roster puzzle. It makes sense for Crow to look for a good young bat here, but I think adding a solid SP prospect to a thin organization is too tempting. SP Corrick is clearly the best SP left, but I see him sliding due to age, being a lefty, and his creaky back. Crow takes the cleaner LHSP prospect.


    14. Poughkeepsie Paladins - 3B J.D. Edwards (Actual Pick: SS Vic Payne)(traded to KEN)

    As usual, Dan is faced with a brutal choice here. He desperately needs a young SP to pair with Scrooby, but the best one left (Corrick) might need back surgery before FA even starts. I think he toys with the idea of reaching for 3B/MR Joey Cecil and going with the 2-pitch approach, but defers. After Corrick passes out from climbing the stairs to POU's interview room, has to make a call between an unexciting older SP prospect in Ed Schwartz or the tantalizing tumultuous talent of soon-to-be-18 3B J.D. Edwards. Dan, sick from watching pitchers get eviscerated year after year, decides he'd rather take a chance on a 9/9/6 guy instead of an at-best #3 SP.


    15. Durham Dragons - SP Ed Schwartz

    I get the sense that Mali is a bit exhausted by OOTP right now. Durham underachieved last season and doesn't have much talent churning through the system. The old Mali would say, "fudge you mother fudgers, I'm taking a chance" and go with the talented yet flawed SP Brendan Corrick. Current Mali just goes with the boringest boring player left in the boring draft.


    16. Portland Fighting Prawns (from DAV) - SP Brendan Corrick

    With their second of four picks in the 1st round, PT can afford to take a flyer, and he pounces on Corrick.


    17. Indianapolis Ice Weasels - 1B Liam Begley

    Kurt is a top 10 owner for a reason... he's won 5 fucking rings. Even the Mandarin has a healthy respect for Kurt. But he's hit the skids recently, bouncing between 4th and 5th place the last 4 seasons, and having to win a tiebreaker game to make the playoffs. His minors aren't exactly stocked with talent. What am I getting at here? Not sure, other than my childish desire to denigrate ALL TOP TEN OWNERS UNTIL THEY LET ME IN THE CLUB. Ahem. Back to the draft. Unfortunately for Kurt, I see this pick as the dividing line between "Oh yeah, I'm really happy to draft that guy" and "Well, shit, he doesn't look any worse than the rest of them." This point is where you start talking yourself into the power-hitting 1B/DH despite being able to get one of those in FA for peanuts, or the 17-year-old SP with talent you know will never fill out.

    This being IND, and given the dearth of power in their system, I see Kurt taking the best 1B/DH left and
    hoping for another Guy Stewart.


    18. Hollywood Media Whores (from ORO) - RP Joey Cecil


    You really think I'm going to give away who I want at this spot? Meh, what's the difference. Nobody is going to make any trades to jump ahead of me, plus what are the odds the draft actually falls this way? All I can tell you is, I've gotten torched taking 17- and 18-year-olds, despite what Buddy says. No way I'm doing that again. RP Joey Cecil looks good here because he's the best pure RP remaining in the draft (I see Marks as a SP anyway) and would be ready to go next season along with O'Donnell. I don't see him dropping to my next pick at 23 either. If there were an obvious older 1B/DH left, that wouldn't be a horrible pick either, but I don't see one.


    19. Greenbelt Gophers - SP Rio Aris

    This one, and all following (except my picks) are total stabs in the dark. GRN doesn't need power. They have 3 prospects with 9 POW talent. They have 3 very interesting SP prospects with high MOV talent. I don't see Critch taking a flyer on the clear best player left here, which is OF Erik Locascio. Instead, I see him going a little safer with a different kind of SP than he's currently grooming.


    20. Boston Pagans - RF Erik Locascio

    We know Drake likes two things: toe cleavage and teenage contact hitters. I can't speak to the availability of the former at this pick, but the latter is sitting right there for the taking.


    21. Santa Cruz Sea Lions - SS Jimmy Haslinger

    Clint has almost no pitcher prospects of note lower than AA ball, so if any of SPs Aris, Schwartz or Corrick are still around, that's the pick. If not, then SAC is in a rough spot because the draft pool is dry with 1st-round-worthy older SPs and I don't see Clint taking a chance on any of the 17-year-old SP prospects left. Instead, SAC will go with a lesser talent, but a "safer" one who happens to be incredibly versatile in the field.


    22. Barstow Brouhaha - 1B Ian Keeling

    DD is in great shape here, with the 4th-best system and lots of high-quality younger prospects still on the board because teams with thin systems got scared off by teenagers. He would like a SP, but steers clear of T.J. Stubbs and his 10 CON that will never, ever fill out. Instead, he grabs a superior hitting talent and can roll the dice with him. If OF Locascio falls here, that's the pick. Otherwise, it's potential masher (and soon-to-be-18-year-old) 1B Keeling.



    23. Hollywood Media Whores (from ORO) - CF Pat Campbell

    I'm tempted by SP Stubbs at this point, but have gotten burned too many times by teenagers with 1/10 CON ratings. Maybe in the 2nd round. Instead, I'll go with a safer pick who is the best power hitter left and can play gold-glove D in CF.



    24. Portland Fighting Prawns (from NRW) - RF Dave Cuny

    Mr. Tar has one more 1st rounder left and would like to downshift to "safe" mode after going out on a limb with SP Corrick earlier, but the amount of young talent left on the board rivals that of any SEC campus. I'm talking about females there. Ahem.



    25. Minnesota Windchill (from WIS) - 3B Joey MacAulay

    Tauter made a wise purchase from WIS. Assuming he lives, a SHB 3B of MacAulay's caliber would cost more than $2.4M per year on the FA market, which is the ultimate cost of buying a draft pick for ~$6M and then getting 5 years of production out of the player at $100K.



    26. Arizona Discotheques (from VIR) - SP T.J. Stubbs

    Rope has a good enough team that he doesn't need immediate help from this pick. Plus, it's kind of house money since he has another pick at 30. So he looks to bolster his lower level pitching prospects with a flyer on a significant talent.



    27. Montego Bay Red Stripe - RF Tom Baldock

    Doc really doesn't even want this pick after failing to move up for Kerns. I don't see him keeping it. If he does, then he goes with a classic Doc pick of a guy who got a little overlooked but who will survive and provide great production out of that 100K salary.



    28. Capital City Metropolitans - SS Manuel Rivera

    I'm hesitant to even try and get in the head of a top 10 owner like Buddy, who can draft circles around me, but here's my best shot. Buddy doesn't want to pick after a master like Doc, and was really hoping to get Baldock. Now he looks down the board, past the flashy teenagers, and settles on a guy who looks safe and can be a defensive contributor at a need position even if his talents drop to his currents.


    29. Portland Fighting Prawns (from WIC) - RF Dave Zizzo

    POR would like to finish off their 1st round haul with a solid SP, but doesn't see any left that jumps out at them. They toy with the idea of taking the best remaining RP (Pacheco), but could get somebody of his caliber for cheap in FA next year. Instead, they go with another OF, a solid, hard worker who can make a difference with his glove in a worst-case scenario.



    30. Arizona Discotheques - 3B Tommy Williams

    Having taken a gamble with his earlier pick, Rope goes a little safer with this pick after he falls in love with Williams' POW potential, work ethic, and last name.



    31. Utica Wombats - RF Joey Porter

    Overconfident after his near-miss in the SS, Nick believes in the inherent superiority of his system, puts on his Bill Belichick mask, and takes a "system" pick.



    32. Las Vegas Lightning - RF Zachary Lydon

    Cuervo wanted Porter, but comforts himself with a 7/8/5 guy at 1-32. Some guys get all the breaks!
    Last edited by Hollywood; 06-18-2013 at 02:27 PM.

  2. #2
    FOBL Board of Governors Morgado's Avatar
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    Interesting... this is a lot more teenager and RHB heavy than I thought it would be. Maybe the draft pool isn't as good as I thought it was when I first looked at it.

    Thanks for doing this shaw - it is helpful for filtering the draft pool to look at prospects.

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    FOBL Board of Governors CubsFan915's Avatar
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    Holy crap, I didn't realize that the Rat was that close to being ML ready. Shaw, are you sure you don't want to just send him straight to the bigs, and not let your zombie minor league coaches get a chance to eat his skills?
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    Beloved Former Owner DukeRulesMAB's Avatar
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    It would have been funnier if you had messed up your own mock draft with the first pick.


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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    I considered it.

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    FOBL Owner/GM Buddy Grant's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Morgado View Post
    Maybe the draft pool isn't as good as I thought it was when I first looked at it.
    X2. My first glance lead me to believe the top 10 was huge, but there may only be 2 flawless choices there. Lots of other great guys at the top but each seems to have a key weakness or question mark. Some examples:
    - DH's (poor defense 1B or SS/2B) are often pretty easy to get cheaply in RFA because there are only so many DH slots or GM's willing to take a defensive hit at 1B or in the OF corners. That is a big value hit, and the poor fielding SS/2B may be less valuable than the poor fielding 1B for some owners.
    - Older players with low work ethic can be heart breakers as they sometimes do not develop, and you only have a few seasons for them to fill the ratings.
    - SP's with very weak (1 or 2 talent) 3rd pitches can be heart breakers. Sometimes they perform like 2 pitch SP's, and they can also lose that 3rd pitch pretty easily with a dev hit.
    - SP's with lower rated 'top' pitches seem to not perform as well. Perhaps the game treats the pitch order as the pitch priority order for the SP (if so, stupid OOTP).

    Quote Originally Posted by Morgado View Post
    Thanks for doing this shaw - it is helpful for filtering the draft pool to look at prospects.
    X3. There are going to be some tough upper 1st round choices that will be fun to follow along with.
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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Edited ALK and TRE thanks to Cuervo's tool providing me a little more insight.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see SP Poole and stealth SP Williams go higher than my prediction.

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsFan915 View Post
    Holy crap, I didn't realize that the Rat was that close to being ML ready. Shaw, are you sure you don't want to just send him straight to the bigs, and not let your zombie minor league coaches get a chance to eat his skills?
    I'm considering just putting him directly in the bigs as a 10% spot starter.

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    FOBL Owner/GM Buddy Grant's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hollywood View Post
    ... I've gotten torched taking 17- and 18-year-olds, despite what Buddy says.
    If I ever said 17/18 year olds are the best guys to pick, I profusely apologize!

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buddy Grant View Post
    If I ever said 17/18 year olds are the best guys to pick, I profusely apologize!
    I thought your research indicated that age was not a predictor of dev hits. I need to check again.

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    Beloved Former Owner DukeRulesMAB's Avatar
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    I don't think Buddy said that older players are less likely to get dev hits, I think they're just much more likely to have filled out their prior talents before the dev hits set in. If you draft a 10/10/10 guy with 7/7/7 currents, even if he dev hits down to 5/5/5 you're going to get several useful seasons out of him, particularly if the currents improve any before the dev hits set in. If you draft a 10/10/10 guy with 2/2/2 currents, any dev hits will likely kill him before he ever can become useful.


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    Beloved Former Owner DukeRulesMAB's Avatar
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    Out of curiosity, what FOBL year did you all "fix" the draft classes to no longer suck?


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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeRulesMAB View Post
    Out of curiosity, what FOBL year did you all "fix" the draft classes to no longer suck?
    http://www.thefobl.com/forums/showth...elopment-thing

    So, 2037-2038, I think.

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeRulesMAB View Post
    I don't think Buddy said that older players are less likely to get dev hits, I think they're just much more likely to have filled out their prior talents before the dev hits set in. If you draft a 10/10/10 guy with 7/7/7 currents, even if he dev hits down to 5/5/5 you're going to get several useful seasons out of him, particularly if the currents improve any before the dev hits set in. If you draft a 10/10/10 guy with 2/2/2 currents, any dev hits will likely kill him before he ever can become useful.
    That sounds much more reasonable. I need to find Buddy's development report and read it again.

    *EDIT* Here it is.
    Last edited by Hollywood; 06-14-2013 at 09:42 AM.

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    FOBL Owner/GM Thomkal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hollywood View Post
    14. Poughkeepsie Paladins - 3B J.D. Edwards

    As usual, Dan is faced with a brutal choice here. He desperately needs a young SP to pair with Scrooby, but the best one left (Corrick) might need back surgery before FA even starts. I think he toys with the idea of reaching for 3B/MR Joey Cecil and going with the 2-pitch approach, but defers. After Corrick passes out from climbing the stairs to POU's interview room, has to make a call between an unexciting older SP prospect in Ed Schwartz or the tantalizing tumultuous talent of soon-to-be-18 3B J.D. Edwards. Dan, sick from watching pitchers get eviscerated year after year, decides he'd rather take a chance on a 9/9/6 guy instead of an at-best #3 SP.
    Yes yes you have a good idea of POU's agony with our prospects. Scrooby already taken hits, and a SP from the last draft I had hopes for has done so too. But depending on what's left at our pick, I can't see taking a teenager unless they were already nicely developed. Like you, I can't stand taking a young guy who needs so much developing to get to those stud ratings, because most won't get all the way there. So I almost always take a college player who will get to the majors more quickly. "Hamburger" Edwards would certainly be tempting though because you noticed our other big need to SP's-infielders. Just have to wait and see what's left of the good ones when it gets to the pick.

    Given the choices you mentioned for us-I would take Schwartz-Cecil would be a typical 2 pitch SP that POU seems to specialize in (and Marks would be even better for us), but both he and Corrick's stamina don't really make for great starters in my opinion, so I'd probably pass on them here. Maybe I need to try trade up here...

    Love your mock drafts Steve, thanks for doing them.
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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
    Love your mock drafts Steve, thanks for doing them.
    You're welcome!

    I merged the disparate posts into one. Still have picks 19-32 to come!

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    Yeah, let's get on with it. I need to know who to pick.


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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doc P View Post
    Yeah, let's get on with it. I need to know who to pick.
    I'm only batting .500 so far. And I had inside info on who was being taken at #1.

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    FOBL Board of Governors CubsFan915's Avatar
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    Long actually would make sense for me, but that work ethic scares me. I know Buddy found no relation between WR and talent hits, though...
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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    GRN and BOS added.

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    Beloved Former Owner Argot's Avatar
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    Dumb question...How could pitchers who pitch in the high 90's not have a rating on their fastball? Are you telling me that MLB pitchers can't throw a fastball?

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  22. #22
    FOBL Owner/GM Doc P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Argot View Post
    Dumb question...How could pitchers who pitch in the high 90's not have a rating on their fastball? Are you telling me that MLB pitchers can't throw a fastball?
    Lonnie Aldis doesn't have a fastball, yet he has a 100 mph sinker and is the #2 SP in the FOBL. Blame the Krauts.


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    FOBL Owner/GM Drake's Avatar
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    You mock picks for me have been consistently better than my own picks, so I'm taking whoever you tell me to take if they're still available.
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  24. #24
    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Finished!

  25. #25
    FOBL Owner/GM Buddy Grant's Avatar
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    Great job Steve, the team & player choice comments are very interesting. I'm not sure if you're selecting the order based mostly on your personal preferences or if you're attempting some GM role playing, but lots of great observations regardless. I wonder if there would be any use in tracking some owner pick tendencies based on past drafts - there might be some surprises.

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