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Thread: South Carolina: Anatomy of a failed empty cupboard rebuild, year 2

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Default South Carolina: Anatomy of a failed empty cupboard rebuild, year 2

    I felt like I did a good job building SCA into a playoff team and a legitimate contender for a championship. Unfortunately, I grew increasingly frustrated with losing over 1/3 of my starters each season to injuries and what I believe is pretty much a random game engine (except for the 2-minute code).

    Initially, I decided to quit the league for the second and final time, but instead chose to keep my team and go empty cupboard, thereby increasing the amount of time I could spend trading and drafting, which are the only 2 aspects of the game I remotely enjoy.

    After some tense negotiations with the powers-that-be, I began to dismantle the team I had painstakingly built only a few years earlier. As of today, only 2 players remain from the previous regime: DE Rick Joslyn and RB Stephen Sherman. DE Joslyn has never lived up to his potential and RB Sherman is a breakout creeper who is mediocre at best. Not a great base on which to build a team.

    I had a total of 17 picks in the 2011 draft and 15 picks in the 2012 draft. I grabbed a ton of UDFA in 2011 but couldn't get many in 2012 because of my $59M in lost cap killing my 2012 cap space. I'll try to highlight the UDFAs who seem to have a future.

    Basically, my drafts have been a brutal, brutal failure, much like my life. Thanks to my drafting ineptitude, my team will not compete for at least 8-9 seasons. Let's look at my most recent draft and then my first post-purge draft.

    2012 Draft

    I thought I had a masterful draft, after wheeling and dealing (mostly with Quik) to move up and down and get picks. 15 of them, to be exact. Since I am in Year 2 of my empty cupboard rebuild, I needed this draft to be fruitful. I thought it was.

    Then training camp hit, and I realized anew why I wanted to quit 2 seasons ago.

    1(1) Chris Sanders:

    Drafted Future: 86
    Post-TC Future: 86 (-0)

    Sanders was the clear pick at 1-1 since there wasn't a stud QB available. Luckily, he didn't bust, but I don't see much of a future with SCA since we don't have a QB or a team. I will probably trade him soon.

    Analysis: Best player on a horrible team and will not be on my team long.

    1(30) DE (now DT) Joseph Matthews:

    Drafted Future: 59
    Post-TC Future: 56 (-3)

    I switched Matthews to DT after he dropped 2 future points to 57 and he seemed to be a better fit as a run-stopping DT. After switching him, he bumped back to a 59 future, but TC took him down to 56 future. He isn't alone in dying during TC.

    Analysis: He wouldn't start for any decent FOFL team, yet he's my best DT and was my 2nd 1st rounder. His -3 future after TC points toward more declines, so he is a bust and is a total draft failure.

    2(1) QB Rico Nomo:

    Drafted Future: 57
    Post-TC Future: 51 (-6)

    This was a stupid, terrible pick. Why waste a 2(1) on a QB when I will likely take a QB with next year's 1-1? Even if this guy's ratings stayed stable, he would be no more than a decent backup. The draft karma took heed of my stupidity and promptly killed him with a -5 drop after I drafted him. After I signed him, he bumped back up to a 53 future (only a 4 point loss, ha ha), but TC destroyed him back to 51 future.

    Analysis: A 6 point drop after TC means he's dead. He will likely drop 10-20 points in the next 2 seasons and be out of the league before he even fills out his ratings. A total failure and waste of a valuable pick.

    2(20) WR Brent Segalas:

    Drafted Future: 56
    Post-TC Future: 45 (-9)

    He lost 5 points after signing and continued that slide in TC. A total waste of another 2nd rounder.

    Analysis: Will be out of the league in 1-2 seasons. Total failure. He's also my 2nd best WR.

    3(14) LB Rico Dole:

    Drafted Future: 55
    Post-TC Future: 47 (-8)

    I needed a LB, and Dole was the best available. He dropped 5 points after the draft, but after I switched him to MLB he bumped back up to 53 future. TC knocked him back down to 47. What the fuck is up with my training camp? Are they running a drill where they hit my players with ax handles?

    Analysis: Another total bust who will continue to decline and be out of the league shortly.

    3(15) OG Barry Stephenson:

    Drafted Future: 56
    Post-TC Future: 62 (+6)

    Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. A +6 bump makes this a nice 3rd round pick.

    Analysis: Will start for me for many years, although he probably couldn't crack the 46 on any decent FOFL team.

    3(21) DT (now DE) Andy Parker:

    Drafted Future: 50
    Post-TC Future: 59 (+9)

    Parker didn't lose any points after the draft, which was a small victory itself. I moved him to DE after the game indicated it was a good switch and his talents seemed better suited to the position. He bumped up 9 points after the switch and maintained them through TC.

    Analysis: Should be a solid contributor, but is a backup on any decent team.


    Look for more in this series later. It may surprise you, but there are plenty more busts to come.
    Last edited by Hollywood; 10-07-2006 at 01:59 AM.

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    Beloved Former Probationary Owner johnd2442's Avatar
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    but you did draft two guys named rico. that, in and of itself, seems like it would be a very difficult job to pull off, yet, here you seem like you did it with a deft touch of mastery.

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    Beloved Former Owner brale's Avatar
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    If you think you're getting 2013 1.1 you have another thing coming, boyo!

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnd2442 View Post
    but you did draft two guys named rico. that, in and of itself, seems like it would be a very difficult job to pull off, yet, here you seem like you did it with a deft touch of mastery.
    Holy shit, I just realized that.

    I now have a "no Rico" policy both in my FOFL drafting and my personal life.

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brale View Post
    If you think you're getting 2013 1.1 you have another thing coming, boyo!
    Have you actually looked at my team?

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    The South Carolina Suaves?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hollywood View Post
    I now have a "no Rico" policy both in my FOFL drafting and my personal life.
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    Owner and GM, Washington Piledrivers and Virginia Woodchucks Subby's Avatar
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    Steve - I know this seems crazy, but you might be overreacting.

    Players drop all the time initially and then creep back up. Crittenden was 12/79 pre-draft, got all the way down to 72 future (a draft bust by your definition) and has moved back up to 80/80.

    Your draft doesn't really look that different from anyone else's, to be honest. You need to have patience with your players.


    I think you did a nice job of wheeling and dealing and I really enjoy your enthusiasm during the offseason. Be positive, homie!
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    Shaw? Overreact? INCONCEIVABLE.


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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Subby View Post
    Steve - I know this seems crazy, but you might be overreacting.

    Players drop all the time initially and then creep back up. Crittenden was 12/79 pre-draft, got all the way down to 72 future (a draft bust by your definition) and has moved back up to 80/80.

    Your draft doesn't really look that different from anyone else's, to be honest. You need to have patience with your players.


    I think you did a nice job of wheeling and dealing and I really enjoy your enthusiasm during the offseason. Be positive, homie!
    Really? It's always been my experience that a player who drops more than 5 points after the draft continues the decline and ends up being cut a few seasons later. Maybe that won't be the case here, but since virtually every one of my players dropped several points, odds are most of them are dead. We'll see.

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    FOBL Owner/GM Fritz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hollywood View Post
    3(15) OG Barry Stephenson:

    Drafted Future: 56
    Post-TC Future: 62 (+6)

    Analysis: Will start for me for many years, although he probably couldn't crack the 46 on any decent FOFL team.

    3(21) DT (now DE) Andy Parker:

    Drafted Future: 50
    Post-TC Future: 59 (+9)
    Analysis: Should be a solid contributor, but is a backup on any decent team.


    Look for more in this series later. It may surprise you, but there are plenty more busts to come.
    you are on fucking crack. there are plenty of 55 - 65 rated starters on 'decent' teams.

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    Beloved Former Owner Daimyo's Avatar
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    that wasn't a rebuild... that was a massacre

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    FOBL Owner/GM Fritz's Avatar
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    wait, are you using fof 2?

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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daimyo View Post
    that wasn't a rebuild... that was a massacre
    Wait until you see the rest of the picks. They make these first few seem brilliant.

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    Beloved Former Owner VPI97's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fritz View Post
    you are on fucking crack. there are plenty of 55 - 65 rated starters on 'decent' teams.
    Ditto. Aside from the kicking guys, I only have five players on my team that my scout rates higher than 52.
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    FOFL Owner/GM QuikSand's Avatar
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    Setting aside some of the general inanity here, I'd offer one bit of advice.

    When you switch a player's position (DE to DT, ILB to OLB, whatever) and his overall ratings change as a result -- don't comfuse this for the overall rqatings change we see at pivots points in the game itself.

    The game takes the individual skill ratings, and combines them in various weightings to come up with its overall rating. When a guy switches from DE to DT (like Parker, I think you have it reversed above) if he has pretty good prospects as a run stopper, his overall rating is going to increase -- just because that is weighted more heavily for the DT position than it is for DE. Even if his individual ratings drop, he might have an increase in overall ratings. You haven't determined the direction of "the arrow" on the guy at this stage.

    Just thought that might help you resolve some of your up and down complaints... of the one movement in overall rating that doesn't make sense to you is associated with a position switch, you have some apples and oranges going on there.

  17. #17
    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
    Setting aside some of the general inanity here, I'd offer one bit of advice.
    Glad to be a bit of entertainment for you.

  18. #18
    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Continuing the analysis:

    5(1) OG Bart Carter:

    Drafted Future: 43
    Post-TC Future: 40 (-3)

    This was a pure combine pick. He had incredible numbers, and I hoped for a breakout. I didn't get it. He will probably be released in a few seasons as his decline continues.

    Analysis: Another wasted pick at the top of a round.


    5(15) K Jumbo Shepherd:

    Drafted Future: 68
    Post-TC Future: 62 (-6)

    Jumbo was the 1st or 2nd highest rated K in the draft, I needed a kicker, and I figured this was a good spot to take one.

    Analysis: A 6-point drop likely means more destruction in the future. He is good for now, but he will probably be down to a 40 future in 2 seasons. A wasted pick.


    5(17) OC Jesse Watkins:

    Drafted Future: 57
    Post-TC Future: 50 (-7)

    I needed a center, and Watkins had decent combines and nice ratings. Of course, he swiftly died.

    Analysis: What can I say? Another bust who will be out of the league in 1-2 seasons. Another wasted pick.


    5(18) CB Sedrick Joyner:

    Drafted Future: 43
    Post-TC Future: 36 (-7)

    Joyner had nice zone blue bars and decent combines. Now he's dead.

    Analysis: I didn't even sign him. Another wasted pick.


    6(1) DT Rick Putzier:

    Drafted Future: 45
    Post-TC Future: 42 (-3)

    I took him solely for his run D, which appeared virtually maxed out. It's not maxed out anymore. He is a useless player.

    Analysis: Another wasted pick at the top of a round.


    6(17) P Rod Warkentien:

    Drafted Future: 64
    Post-TC Future: 53 (-11)

    I needed a P, and this choad had great blue bars for power and direction. He seemed like a steal at 6-17. I was right, except the steal was him taking the signing bonus and then dying.

    Analysis: Massive, massive bust who won't last past next TC. I'll have to take another P next year.


    7(1) LB Herman Shanahan:

    Drafted Future: 46
    Post-TC Future: 42 (-4)

    I have a dire, dire need for LBs, and this guy seemed like he could be a capable backup with nice zone coverage skills. If his ratings stabilize, he could still fill that position.

    Analysis: If he sticks on the roster for 3-4 seasons, then I consider it a successful 7th rounder.


    7(30) LB Frank Stiles:

    Drafted Future: 42
    Post-TC Future: 42 (-0)

    Stiles has excellent run D skills and no pass coverage ability whatsoever. He will make a capable WLB backup. As of now, he's starting.

    Analysis: See Shanahan.


    UDFA of note

    CB Lamont Swift:

    Drafted Future: 32
    Post-TC Future: 38 (+6)

    Swift was a FS who had nice zone coverage skills and good agility numbers from the combine, which made him a good candidate for switching to CB IMHO. The game seemed to agree, bumping him up 6 points after the switch.

    Analysis: If his ratings continue to rise, then he will be a decent nickel or dime guy.
    Last edited by Hollywood; 10-07-2006 at 02:11 AM.

  19. #19
    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Final 2012 Draft Analysis

    15 picks

    14 of them signed.

    11 dropped in future ratings after TC. Of those:

    3 dropped 3 points
    1 dropped 4 points
    2 dropped 6 points
    2 dropped 7 points
    1 dropped each of 8, 9 and 11 points.

    2 went up in ratings after TC. Of those:

    1 went up 6 points
    1 went up 9 points after a position switch, so there is no guarantee that he is actually a breakout.

    2 had no change.

    --------------------------

    Evaluating each round:

    1st round: 2 picks. One is a future All-FOFL player (Sanders), and the other is a career backup at best who is likely to lose ratings in the future (Matthews).

    2nd round: 2 picks. One dropped 6 points and the other dropped 9 points.

    3rd round: 3 picks. One dropped 8 points, which is extra bad because it was at a position of dire need (LB Dole). The other 2 went up, although one may be a mirage.

    4th round: No picks.

    5th round: 4 picks. One is a missed breakout pick and the others dropped 6, 7 and 7 points respectively.

    6th round: 2 picks. One dropped 3 points and the other dropped 11 points.

    7th round: 2 picks. If the one that dropped 4 points stabilizes, then I will have gotten 2 backups from the 7th round.

    ---------------------

    The upshot

    Two of my 3 3rd rounders and my two 7th round picks are better than my 2nd, 5th and 6th round picks COMBINED. I might as well have not even drafted in those rounds.

    How can this be spun as anything but a bloodbath and total failure?

  20. #20
    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Up next, my 2011 draft. It ain't pretty either.

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    The whole world is a circus if you look at it the right way. Every time you pick up a handful of dust, and see not the dust, but a mystery, a marvel, there in your hand, every time you stop and think, "I'm alive, and being alive is fantastic!" Every time such a thing happens, you are part of the Circus of Dr. Lao.

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    siap


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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    FOBL Board of Governors Hollywood's Avatar
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    Update after the new file. More death and destruction.

    1(1) Chris Sanders:

    Drafted Future: 86
    Post-TC Future: 86 (-0)

    New Future: 87

    1(30) DE (now DT) Joseph Matthews:

    Drafted Future: 59
    Post-TC Future: 56 (-3)

    New Future: 54

    2(1) QB Rico Nomo:

    Drafted Future: 57
    Post-TC Future: 51 (-6)

    New Future: 51

    2(20) WR Brent Segalas:

    Drafted Future: 56
    Post-TC Future: 45 (-9)

    New Future: 40

    3(14) LB Rico Dole:

    Drafted Future: 55
    Post-TC Future: 47 (-8)

    New Future: 42

    3(15) OG Barry Stephenson:

    Drafted Future: 56
    Post-TC Future: 62 (+6)

    New Future: 62

    3(21) DT (now DE) Andy Parker:

    Drafted Future: 50
    Post-TC Future: 59 (+9)

    New Future: 59

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    Owner and GM, Washington Piledrivers and Virginia Woodchucks Subby's Avatar
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    SIAP
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